What Will El Niño Mean for Travel?

El Niño is a natural weather pattern caused by warmer-than-usual water in the Pacific Ocean. This warming shifts wind and rain patterns around the world, causing floods in some places and droughts in others. Scientists measure El Niño using a tool called the Nino 3.4 index, which showed temperatures 2.0°C above normal in July. That is a very high reading and signals a powerful event.

The World Meteorological Organisation says there is nearly a 100 percent chance El Niño will last through February 2027. UK scientist Professor Adam Scaife called it 'unprecedented,' meaning nothing like it has been seen before in forecasts. The event is expected to peak around December 2026 and may continue into spring 2027. El Niño events can typically last up to 18 months.

Different parts of the world will be affected in very different ways. East Africa is expected to get very heavy rainfall, while southern Africa and the Caribbean may face drought. India, Central America, and parts of Africa could see dry conditions from June through October. South America and parts of East Asia are also at risk of extreme weather.

East Africa's safari regions in Kenya and Tanzania could see flooded rivers and cut-off camps between October and December. Travelers should check with local guides before visiting and have flexible plans. Southern Africa, including Botswana and South Africa, is likely to face a hotter, drier summer through March. This is difficult for wildlife and local farmers who depend on rain.

The Caribbean may see fewer hurricanes, but drought remains a serious concern for the islands. Bali is also expected to be dry before its rainy season begins. Meanwhile, skiers in the southern American West could enjoy above-average snowfall. But California and the Southwest may face wet and stormy conditions, causing travel delays.

Peru and Ecuador are already preparing for El Niño's arrival. Ecuador has issued a red alert, and the UK Foreign Office warned that Peru could face flooding, landslides, and road closures from late 2026 to April 2027. Travelers are urged to buy refundable tickets and check their travel insurance for weather-related coverage. Staying updated on forecasts is more important than ever.

Climate scientists want travelers to also think about their impact on the environment. In areas facing drought, visitors should try to save water, since local people will need it long after tourists have gone home. Coral reefs are also at risk, as El Niño raises ocean temperatures and causes bleaching. Divers and snorkelers visiting the Great Barrier Reef should be prepared to see damaged coral.