UN Warns El Niño Could Be the Strongest in Decades
The world's top climate agency says this El Niño is on track to become one of the most powerful ever recorded, bringing floods, droughts, and extreme heat around the globe.
The United Nations' weather agency is warning that El Niño could become the strongest on record in the past 40 years. The World Meteorological Organization, known as the WMO, made the announcement on Thursday. It says El Niño is almost certain to continue through February and grow even stronger in the months ahead. Leaders at the UN say the world is now in the 'danger zone of extreme weather.'
El Niño is a natural event that warms the surface of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator. This warming changes wind, rain, and pressure patterns all around the world. It happens every two to seven years and usually lasts about nine to twelve months. Even areas thousands of kilometres away from the Pacific can feel its effects.
The WMO rates El Niño events on a four-level scale: weak, moderate, strong, or very strong. This event is expected to reach the very top level. Ocean temperatures in the central eastern Pacific have already been more than 2°C above average in recent weeks. In some underwater spots, temperatures were more than 8°C above normal during July and early August.
WMO chief Celeste Saulo said this El Niño has the potential to deliver 'a massive blow to communities and economies across the world.' She urged disaster teams and industries like farming, health, energy, and water to start preparing right away. The WMO expects El Niño to peak near the end of this year, though its effects will continue well into 2027. Heat stored in the ocean is released slowly, which means global temperatures can stay high for a long time after the event peaks.
El Niño is not caused by climate change — it is a natural part of how the Earth's oceans and atmosphere work. However, scientists say it will make the heat of an already warming planet even worse. Burning fossil fuels has been raising global temperatures for decades, and El Niño adds to that heat. The powerful El Niño of 2023–24 helped make 2024 the hottest year ever recorded.
Different parts of the world face different risks during a strong El Niño. Droughts are likely in parts of the Amazon, Indonesia, and Australia, while India's monsoon rains could be disrupted. The WMO forecasts that nearly all land areas will see above-normal temperatures between September and November. Scientists say the world must be ready, because this El Niño shows no signs of slowing down soon.
The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up.
Comprehension quiz preview
1. What does the WMO stand for?
2. What is the highest level on the WMO's El Niño rating scale?
3. How often does El Niño typically occur?