A Far-Right Party Is Rising in Germany — Could It Win Berlin?

Voters in Berlin, Germany, are heading to the polls on Sunday in a state election that could reshape the country's politics. The far-right party known as the AfD — short for Alternative für Deutschland, or 'Alternative for Germany' — has been climbing in the polls. If the AfD wins or finishes near the top in Berlin, it would be a huge moment for far-right politics in Germany and across Europe. Berlin is known around the world as an open, diverse, and politically left-leaning city, which makes the AfD's rise there especially surprising.

Just two weeks ago, the AfD won a state election in Saxony-Anhalt, a region in eastern Germany. That was the first time a far-right party had won a German state election since World War II. Now, the AfD is hoping to do it again in Berlin. Polls show the AfD in third place, about 3.4 percentage points behind the Left party and 2.5 points behind the centre-right CDU, the party led by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

Experts say the AfD has been working hard to soften its image. German intelligence once labeled the party a 'right-wing extremist organisation,' which scared away many voters. But the party has been trying to look less extreme in public. Grégoire Roos, an expert on European politics at a think tank called Chatham House, says the change has been noticeable.

The AfD's top issues in Berlin include immigration, housing, and education. The party wants strict limits on immigration and says housing and jobs should go to people born in Germany first. It is also strongly against programs that promote diversity and gender equality. In Berlin, the AfD has also focused on everyday city problems like rising rents and school quality — issues that matter to many voters.

Kristen Brinker leads the AfD in Berlin and is seen as less harsh than some of the party's national leaders. This softer style may be helping the party win over voters who would not normally support the AfD. Roos says far-right parties have learned that to win in big cities, they need to act more carefully and avoid saying things that quickly turn people away.

The AfD has been pulling voters from several different groups. Some have left the CDU because they are upset with Chancellor Merz, especially after he changed a law that limited government debt. Young and undecided voters are another big group the AfD has been targeting. In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD won over 170,000 undecided voters partly by reaching young people through social media.

Still, Berlin is different from Saxony-Anhalt in important ways. Berlin's CDU voters tend to be more moderate, and the city's parties have an unwritten agreement — called a 'firewall' — to work together to keep the far right out of power. A practice election held last week, in which 40,000 under-16s voted, showed the Left party winning with 32.8 percent and the AfD finishing with just 5.8 percent.

At the same time, Berlin is not a wealthy city like Frankfurt or Munich, where support for the AfD is weak. The eastern half of Berlin was once part of communist East Germany, where the AfD remains very popular today. Roos says this history and economic struggle make Berlin more open to the AfD than many people might expect. Whether Berlin will turn to the far right — or hold the line — will be answered when votes are counted on Sunday.