'Prepare for the Unthinkable': Wales Warned of Higher Flood Risk This Autumn

People living in Wales are being warned to 'prepare for the unthinkable' as flood experts say the risk of serious flooding is higher than usual this autumn. Natural Resources Wales (NRW) says long-range weather forecasts point to wetter and windier conditions in the months ahead. Officials are urging everyone — not just people who have flooded before — to make a plan now, before bad weather arrives.

Wales has a long history of serious flooding, and recent years have been especially bad. Powerful storms like Dennis in 2020, Bert and Darragh in 2024, and Claudia in 2025 caused widespread damage across the country. More than 274,500 homes and businesses are considered at risk of flooding, and that number is expected to grow by the end of this century.

Flooding in Wales can come from rivers, the sea, and surface water. Surface water flooding happens when heavy rain falls faster than local drains can handle, causing water to build up on streets and in buildings. Wales is especially at risk because it has a long coastline and many rivers that rise very quickly when rain runs off steep hillsides.

Residents in Monmouth described a terrifying flood that hit the town in November 2025. Four elderly friends — Malcolm Butcher, Jim Tyler, Brian Churches, and Dave Blake — said they had lived there all their lives and never seen anything like it. 'At 2:30 in the morning when it hit it was unbelievable… absolutely raging,' Malcolm said, adding that eighteen cars on his street were swept away, including his own.

Another Monmouth resident, Imogen Elliot, said recovery has been slow but steady. She described how a local supermarket was submerged under four feet of floodwater. 'It's not back to normal yet but we're getting there,' she said.

In the town of Cardigan, café owner Jane Roche helped her community write a flood plan together. She said the process brought local people closer and gave them confidence to support each other. 'Flooding is something we've learned to live alongside for many years,' she explained.

Scientists are watching a powerful weather pattern called El Niño over the Pacific Ocean. El Niño warms global temperatures and can make extreme weather more likely around the world. NRW's Jeremy Parr said it is 'part of the picture' behind concerns for the coming months, though it does not automatically mean the UK will face severe storms.

Climate change is making extreme weather more frequent and more intense across the world. Wales is expected to face wetter and wilder winters more often in the future. The Met Office says its forecast for October, November, and December shows 'a greater chance of weather-related disruption.'

One big concern is that only 27% of people who can receive flood warnings have signed up for them. The free service sends alerts by phone or email, but just 48,844 out of 181,158 eligible properties are registered. Jeremy Parr said some people may wrongly think signing up will raise their insurance costs, but he stressed that this is not true.

NRW wants everyone to take simple steps to prepare. People can check their flood risk online using their postcode, sign up for free flood alerts, and read advice about what to do before a flood arrives. As Parr said, even people who have never flooded before should ask themselves: 'If it were to flood around where I live, what would I do?'