Poll: China's exports expected to stay strong in October

China is expected to have sold about one-third more goods to other countries in October compared to the same time last year, according to a new poll by Reuters. This big jump in exports — goods sent out of the country — comes even as people inside China are not spending much money. The strong sales help China's economy keep growing, but they are also causing tension with trading partners around the world.

The Reuters poll of economists predicted export growth of about 33.5% in October compared to October of last year. That is slightly lower than September's growth of 36.3%, but still a very large increase. The official trade numbers were set to be released on Tuesday.

One big reason for China's export boom is the global race to build technology for artificial intelligence, or AI. Countries and companies around the world are spending huge amounts of money on AI systems, and many of the parts they need are made in China. This demand has pushed up the value of goods leaving China by a lot this year.

Imports — goods coming into China from other countries — have also been rising. The poll predicted import growth of about 32% in October, following a 31% rise in September. Even with more goods coming in, China is still selling far more than it is buying, which creates what is called a trade surplus.

The poll forecast a trade surplus of about $125.8 billion for October alone. That is slightly less than September's surplus of $133.53 billion, but still enormous. When added up over the first ten months of 2026, China's total trade surplus has crossed $1 trillion for the year.

This growing surplus is making other countries unhappy. The European Union, a group of European countries that trade together, has called for stronger steps to bring trade with China into better balance. The United States has also had strained relations with China over trade. Last month, the EU reached a deal with China to limit how many hybrid cars China can ship to Europe over the next few years, but that agreement has not started yet.

Because of the delay, Chinese car makers are expected to rush to send as many vehicles as possible before the limits kick in. This front-loading of shipments is likely to push export numbers even higher in the short term. It means the export surge could continue a little longer before slowing down.

Strong exports have helped China's overall economy stay on track. The government has set a goal of growing the economy by 4.5% to 5% this year, and exports are helping meet that target. However, spending by regular Chinese families remains weak because property values have dropped, jobs feel less secure, and many people are feeling uncertain about the future.

Official government data showed that retail sales — money spent in stores — rose by only 1.1% in September compared to a year earlier. That is a very small increase and shows that the Chinese economy is uneven. Exports are doing well, but everyday spending by citizens is not keeping up.

A survey of factory managers showed that conditions got a little worse in October. Factories reported fewer new orders coming in, including fewer orders from foreign buyers. Some analysts said this could be an early sign that the AI technology boom might start to slow down. However, other experts disagreed, saying demand for AI-related products will stay strong for months to come.

Economists pointed out that important tech components like memory chips and circuit boards are still in short supply worldwide. As long as those shortages continue, China's factories will keep getting orders and exports will stay strong. Most experts expect China's export growth to remain solid through the end of the year.