Could Trump Interfere in the Midterm Elections?

Election officials all over the United States are getting ready for a fight. As the 2026 midterm elections get closer, many experts and local officials worry that President Donald Trump and the federal government could try to interfere with how elections are run. They are studying legal books, practicing emergency plans, and even taking classes on what to do if federal agents show up at their polling places.

Reuters reporters Peter Eisler and Mike Spector have been covering this story for two years. Along with their colleagues, they identified nine possible scenarios — or situations — that could happen before or after the midterms. These range from federal agents seizing ballots to the president invoking a special law to send the military near polling places. Experts say most of these situations probably won't happen, but they can't be completely ruled out.

Trump has publicly said he wants more control over how elections are run. At a rally, he even told supporters to 'cheat like hell like they do.' The White House says its real goal is to protect election security and make sure only citizens vote. But many election officials say the threats feel like they are coming from inside the government itself.

One big concern is that Trump could pressure state officials not to certify — or officially approve — election results. After the 2020 election, Trump famously called Georgia's secretary of state and asked him to 'find' enough votes to flip the state's results. Experts worry he could do something similar if the 2026 midterms don't go the way he wants.

Another worry is that federal agents, like those from ICE, could show up near polling places. Federal law makes it illegal for armed government agents to be inside a polling location. But if they stood nearby, some voters — especially people who were born in other countries but are now citizens — might be too scared to vote. This is called 'depressing turnout,' meaning fewer people end up casting ballots.

Trump has also talked about using a law called the Insurrection Act, which would let him send troops to certain places during an emergency. Experts say the law clearly forbids using troops to interfere with elections or intimidate voters. Most legal scholars believe doing so would be so far outside the law that courts would stop it very quickly.

The courts have already been a strong line of defense. The Trump administration has sued about 30 states trying to get their private voter records, and it has lost almost every single one of those cases. Judges have also pushed back on efforts to restrict mail-in voting. Election experts say they believe the courts will continue to act as a guardrail — a barrier that keeps things from going too far.

The FBI recently seized election records from Fulton County, Georgia, which includes Atlanta and is a large Democratic area. Fulton County Commissioner Dana Barrett pointed out that disrupting just one key county could change the results for the whole state. She said, 'If the FBI can show up in Fulton County with a basically bogus criminal warrant, they can do that in any county.'

Despite all the worry, the Trump administration's own investigations have not found any widespread voter fraud that changed the outcome of an election. Small, rare mistakes do happen, but major studies confirm that large-scale fraud is extremely uncommon. Still, many officials worry that even failed attempts to claim fraud can damage people's trust in elections.

Norm Eisen of the Democracy Defenders Fund told reporters that the biggest danger might not be a dramatic raid or military deployment. Instead, it could be that voters simply stop believing that elections are fair. When people lose faith in the voting system, it weakens democracy itself — even if the actual vote count is perfectly accurate.

More than 50 election officials — including secretaries of state, county clerks, and legal experts — told Reuters they believe the 2026 midterms will probably go smoothly in the end. But they are not taking any chances. They are traveling to seminars, running practice drills, and preparing legal documents so they are ready for anything that might come their way.