New Polls Shake Up Michigan Senate Race After McMorrow Drops Out

A Michigan Democratic Senate primary just got a lot more surprising. State Senator Mallory McMorrow stopped her campaign on July 5, and many people expected that to help Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive candidate. But new polls show something different — Representative Haley Stevens is now in the lead with the primary vote coming up fast.

Two polls released in the past week both show Stevens ahead of El-Sayed among likely Democratic primary voters. A Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll taken from July 8 to July 11 found Stevens leading El-Sayed 48% to 41%. A second poll by Tavern Research also showed Stevens ahead, though by just one point. Experts warn that a small number of polls does not tell the whole story, but the results have surprised many people who follow politics closely.

Before El-Sayed joined the race in April 2025, McMorrow was seen as the top progressive in the contest. El-Sayed quickly became known as the boldest progressive voice, earning endorsements from Senator Bernie Sanders and Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Rashida Tlaib, as well as the United Auto Workers union. He has campaigned on Medicare for All, strong support for labor unions, and changing U.S. policy toward Israel. That left McMorrow without a clear message that set her apart from the other two candidates.

David Dulio, a political science professor at Oakland University near Detroit, explained what happened to McMorrow. 'I've always maintained that had Abdul El-Sayed not been in the race, McMorrow would have been the progressive darling,' he said. 'She got outflanked by El-Sayed, and that left her very little room to maneuver.' So far, McMorrow has not endorsed either Stevens or El-Sayed. On Monday, retiring Senator Gary Peters formally endorsed Stevens.

A huge amount of outside money has poured into this race, most of it supporting Stevens. Since early May, outside groups have spent nearly $50 million on TV and online ads to boost Stevens and attack El-Sayed. More than $25 million of that came from a super PAC connected to AIPAC, a pro-Israel lobbying group. Other groups aligned with the Democratic Party establishment have also spent heavily to support Stevens.

AIPAC's involvement has become one of the biggest flashpoints in the race. The two candidates disagree sharply on U.S. support for Israel amid the ongoing war in Gaza. Stevens supports continued U.S. military aid to Israel while calling for a two-state solution. El-Sayed says the U.S. should stop sending military aid and has been one of Israel's loudest Democratic critics.

Stevens has tried to keep her campaign focused on issues like manufacturing, tariffs, and the economic effects of President Trump's policies. She argues that these kitchen-table concerns are what voters care about most. El-Sayed, meanwhile, has leaned on support from a fired-up national progressive movement. His campaign raised $4.57 million in the most recent fundraising quarter — more than double what Stevens or Republican candidate Mike Rogers raised.

El-Sayed hopes to continue a recent wave of progressive wins in Democratic primaries across the country. But Michigan is one of the most evenly divided states in the nation, and some Democrats worry about whether he could beat Rogers in the November general election. Democrats won Michigan's other Senate seat by fewer than 20,000 votes in 2024, and Republicans see Peters' retirement as a strong chance to flip the seat.

El-Sayed has argued that Democrats should stop worrying about picking the 'safest' candidate and instead offer voters a bold vision. His campaign says energizing working-class voters with a strong economic message is the best path to winning in November. Former Michigan Representative Andy Levin, who supports El-Sayed, said: 'I think this election could be a real change election. The way to win purple districts isn't necessarily to run to the middle — it's to make working-class people believe you will actually fight for them.'