Latino Voters in Florida Lean Toward Democrat in Governor's Race

A new poll shows that Republican Byron Donalds is ahead in Florida's race for governor, but Latino voters favor his Democratic opponent, David Jolly. The N+ Univision/YouGov poll, released on Monday, found that Donalds leads overall with 50 percent to Jolly's 42 percent. However, among Latino voters, Jolly came out on top with 48 percent compared to Donalds' 43 percent. The results suggest that Latino voters could be a key group to watch as Election Day approaches.

Florida was once a state where both parties had a real chance of winning. Over time, it has moved more toward Republicans, partly because many conservative retirees moved there and because former President Donald Trump made gains with Latino voters. Trump won Florida by a large margin in the 2024 presidential election against then-Vice President Kamala Harris. He did especially well in areas with many Hispanic residents, like Miami-Dade, Hillsborough, and Osceola counties.

Now, Democrats are trying to make Florida competitive again. They are running David Jolly for governor and Angie Nixon for a U.S. Senate seat. If Democrats can win back some Latino support, it could help them close the gap in a state that has been tough for them in recent years.

The new poll breaks down Latino support by different groups. Cuban Americans favor Donalds by 51 percent to 42 percent. Puerto Rican voters prefer Jolly by 51 percent to 35 percent. South American voters also lean toward Jolly, 47 percent to 44 percent. These numbers show that Latino voters are not all the same — different groups have very different views.

Immigration enforcement is a big issue for many Latino voters. Fifty-five percent of Latinos in the poll say that immigration enforcement has gone too far. About 41 percent say they are worried that they or someone close to them could be affected by immigration rules. Even 29 percent of Latinos who voted for Trump say enforcement has gone too far.

The cost of living is another major concern for Florida's Latino voters. Fifty-nine percent say jobs and the cost of living are a top issue. Fifty-seven percent say housing costs and affordability matter a lot. Only 33 percent listed immigration and immigration enforcement as their top concern.

Clarissa Martinez, Vice President of Unidos US, a nonprofit group, told Newsweek that the poll matches what Hispanic voters are feeling across Florida and the country. She said the cost of living and immigration enforcement are the two biggest issues shaping how Hispanic voters see the president. She added that these issues are pushing many Hispanic voters away from Republicans.

Midterm elections are important because they often serve as a report card on the president's party. Historically, the party in power tends to lose seats during midterm elections. President Trump's approval ratings have been slipping on issues like the economy, jobs, and housing costs. Republicans currently hold slim majorities in both the House and Senate, so every race matters.

Other polls also show Donalds ahead overall. A Stetson University poll found Donalds leading 52 percent to Jolly's 41 percent among likely voters, with about 5 percent undecided. A Mason-Dixon poll showed Donalds ahead 48 percent to 41 percent. Polls can differ based on who is surveyed and when, so voters and campaigns watch multiple polls closely.