Iran warns Europe as the U.S. turns to economic war

Iran has been warning European countries to stay out of its war with the United States and Israel. One of those countries is Bulgaria, a nation in southeastern Europe. Iran said Bulgaria could be a target because the U.S. Air Force was using one of its air bases. The threats have raised a big question: Is Iran really willing to attack countries in Europe?

Bulgaria is one of Iran's larger trading partners in Eastern Europe. Two U.S. Air Force planes — called KC-135 refueling tankers — had been using a Bulgarian base called Bezmer to support a military operation. After Bulgaria said those planes had left over the weekend, Iran issued a new warning on Monday. Iran said it has the right to strike any place that helps the U.S. or Israel attack it.

Iran has also made threats against the United Kingdom. In March, a drone hit a British air base on the island of Cyprus. That same month, Iran fired two ballistic missiles at a distant base in the Indian Ocean called Diego Garcia. The country of Turkey also reported that NATO air defenses shot down several Iranian missiles in March. These events showed that Iran can try to hit targets far from its own borders.

Even so, many experts do not believe Iran truly wants to attack Europe. Alan Eyre used to work for the U.S. government on issues related to Iran and now works at a think tank called the Middle East Institute. He said Iran is 'in a fight for its life' but that attacking European countries probably would not help its cause. 'I don't think the juice is worth the squeeze in terms of antagonizing NATO,' he said, meaning it would cost Iran more than it would gain.

David Cattler, an expert at the Center for European Policy Analysis, agreed that attacking a NATO country would be a major mistake for Iran. He said it would likely drag European countries — which have mostly tried to stay out of the fight — directly into the war against Iran. Right now, Iran's threats alone are already doing some damage. 'Tehran doesn't need to fire a missile at Bulgaria to achieve an effect,' Cattler said, because just the threat is enough to make some countries nervous about helping the U.S.

People living near the Bezmer Air Base in Bulgaria were clearly aware of the danger. A woman at a local grocery store was quoted saying, 'I pray to God that our village won't be attacked.' Bulgaria is about 2,000 miles from Iran, which puts it within range of Iranian missiles. The failed strike on Diego Garcia — which is about 2,350 miles away — made European leaders realize that Iran can try to hit targets much farther away than they had thought before.

The United States has shifted its strategy and is now using money as a weapon. President Trump warned last week of an 'Economic D-Day' for Iran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent then announced a plan called 'Operation Economic Outcast,' which asks countries around the world to cut all financial ties with Iran. Any country that refuses could be blocked from using the U.S. dollar system, which is used for most global trade.

Iran said it is ready for the economic pressure. Iran's Economy Minister said on state television that the country was 'fully prepared for the U.S. sanctions.' An Iranian official also warned that 'the enemies should wait for an attack,' signaling that Iran does not plan to back down. Both President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the U.S. is also ready to use military force again if needed.

However, experts are doubtful the economic plan will work the way the U.S. hopes. Eyre said it is 'wildly improbable' that Operation Economic Outcast will force Iran to change its demands. He warned that if the economic pain gets bad enough, Iran's leaders will not give up — they will likely fight back harder. 'The Iranian leadership is not going to capitulate. They're going to escalate,' he said.

This economic pressure comes after a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran fell apart last month. The two sides had signed a temporary agreement in June, but it collapsed after Iran attacked ships in the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for global oil trade. Iran then shut down the strait, the U.S. set up a naval blockade of Iranian ports, and fighting briefly started up again. Weeks of talks — including efforts by the country of Oman to arrange safe shipping routes — have not led to any peace agreement so far.