Australia's Quantum Gamble: Can a New Kind of Computer Change the World?

Decades ago, Australia built one of the world's first computers — a machine the size of a garage that weighed nearly two tonnes. Peter Thorne remembers working weekends to keep it running. That machine, called CSIRAC, was the fifth automatic digital computer ever built and the first in Australia. Today, parts of it sit in a museum in Melbourne as a reminder of Australia's early role in computing.

Now Australia wants to lead the world again, this time with a new type of machine called a quantum computer. Scientists say quantum computers could be far more powerful than anything we use today. Start-ups and governments are making big bets on this technology. But with artificial intelligence, or AI, growing so fast, some people are asking: is it too late for quantum to matter?

So what makes a quantum computer special? Regular computers use tiny switches called bits that are either on or off. Quantum computers use 'qubits,' which harness the strange rules of quantum physics and can do many calculations at once. Scientists believe they could one day crack secret codes, help design new medicines, and tackle huge problems that today's computers cannot solve.

The world's biggest working quantum computer today has about 6,100 qubits. But experts say a truly 'useful' quantum computer would need millions of qubits to solve real-world problems. Big companies like Google and IBM have been working toward that goal for years. Australia has several companies in the race too, and they are being watched closely by the rest of the world.

One of those companies is PsiQuantum, which the Australian government is paying one billion dollars to build a quantum computer in Queensland. Geoff Pryde, PsiQuantum's Australian chief technical director, says their special chips — which look like CDs with tiny grooves inside — will make it possible. 'We're talking about something in the order of a million physical qubits,' he says. He believes this machine will solve problems that even the most powerful supercomputers today cannot handle.

Not everyone is convinced things are going smoothly for PsiQuantum. Some critics have pointed out delays in the company's plans, and one politician called it a 'quantum gamble in chaos' after the building site was moved earlier this year. Professor Pryde says work is well underway despite the setbacks. Supporters argue the investment is worth the risk because the payoff could be enormous.

Another Australian working on quantum computers is Michelle Simmons, a physicist and CEO of Silicon Quantum Computing in Sydney. She says progress has actually been faster than many people expected. Her team can now control a single electron sitting on a single atom — something that would have seemed impossible not long ago. 'This evolution that we've been on has actually gone incredibly quickly,' she says.

While quantum computers have been developing slowly for decades, AI has exploded in just the last few years. Technology journalist Gideon Lichfield says AI has 'totally eclipsed quantum computing' in the public eye. But he still believes quantum will be useful for specific tasks where it has a clear advantage. The two technologies may actually work better together than apart.

Professor Simmons's company has already built a small quantum processor called 'Watermelon' to help train AI systems faster. However, experts like Jacob Biamonte, a quantum researcher in Canada, say people should keep their expectations realistic. He says using quantum to help AI is 'a legitimate research direction, but not yet an established general capability.' For now, regular computers are still doing most of the heavy lifting for AI.

Professor Pryde puts it simply: 'Quantum computers and AI are complementary, not competitive.' Australia is hoping its early investments pay off, just as CSIRAC once put it on the map. Peter Thorne, who ran that old machine as a young man, says it was hard to imagine back then where computers would go. 'How can you foresee the future?' he asks — and the future of quantum may surprise us all.