Greg Abbott's Chances of Losing Amid Texas Warning Signs for Republicans

Texas Governor Greg Abbott, a Republican, is facing a tougher-than-expected race for re-election. Democrat Gina Hinojosa, a state lawmaker, has been gaining ground on him ahead of November's midterm elections. Two new polls released Thursday showed the race is getting much closer — and one even put Hinojosa ahead.

Hinojosa celebrated the new numbers in a statement on Thursday. 'My message of securing the American Dream by saving Texas schools and putting money in Texans' pockets is resonating with voters,' she said. 'In November, we're going to end Greg Abbott's 30-year political career.' Newsweek reached out to Abbott's campaign for a response.

One poll, from ReconMR and Siena University, showed Hinojosa leading Abbott by 4 points — 49 percent to 45 percent. This was the first time she has led Abbott in any poll this election season. A big reason for her lead was strong support from independent voters, who backed her 65 percent to 27 percent.

The same polling company had shown Abbott ahead earlier this year. In July, Abbott led by just 1 point, and in June, he was up 6 points. The shift shows Hinojosa has been gaining support over time. The poll included 614 likely voters and was taken from September 8 to 11, 2026.

A second poll, from Emerson College, still showed Abbott ahead — but only by 3 points, 49 percent to 46 percent. That is a very small lead, especially in a state that has long been seen as safely Republican. This poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters from September 12 to 14, 2026.

Not all polls agree, though. A SoCal Strategies survey showed Abbott leading by 8 points. A Telemundo poll showed him up 7 points. A YouGov and Univision poll had the two candidates tied at 47 percent each. These different results show how hard it can be to predict what voters will do.

Even with the closer polls, most election experts still think Abbott will win. Two well-known political groups — the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball — both label the race as 'Likely Republican.' That means they believe Abbott is still the favorite, but the race is no longer a sure thing. One analyst noted that Abbott has a big advantage in campaign money, which can help him reach more voters.

One big issue in the race is data centers — large buildings full of computers used by tech companies. Many Texans are worried that these centers use too much water and electricity, which can hurt regular communities. Abbott paused approvals for new data centers while the state looks into the problem more carefully.

Hinojosa has pushed back, saying Abbott helped bring hundreds of data centers to Texas with huge tax breaks. She wants Abbott to call a special meeting of the state legislature to pass new protections for Texans. Even some Republicans are worried — Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller warned that the data center issue 'could hurt us in the midterms.'

Texas is usually a safe Republican state, so a close race there is a big deal. Democrats hope that issues like the cost of living, schools, and data centers can help them win over voters. Whether Abbott and Hinojosa will debate before Election Day is still unknown, but all eyes will be on Texas as November gets closer.