Greg Abbott and Ken Paxton Are Heading in Different Directions in Texas

A new poll from Texas shows that two major Republican candidates in the state are moving in very different directions. Governor Greg Abbott is growing his lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa, while Republican Ken Paxton is falling further behind Democrat James Talarico in the race for a U.S. Senate seat. The survey, released on Thursday, adds to growing talk that Texas could be a key battleground in this year's midterm elections. Both races will be decided on November 3, 2026.

Texas has voted for Republican candidates in every presidential election since the 1990s. But some signs suggest the state could be more competitive this year. Experts point to frustration with the economy and President Donald Trump's falling approval ratings as reasons why Democrats could do better than usual. Still, most political experts say Texas remains a tough state for Democrats to win.

The new poll was conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research, also called TPOR. It surveyed 1,000 likely voters between August 21 and 24, 2026. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, which means the real numbers could be slightly higher or lower.

In the governor's race, Abbott led Hinojosa by 7 points — 49 percent to 42 percent. That is Abbott's best result in any poll since June. Back in July, he led by only 3 points. This shows that Abbott has been slowly gaining strength over the summer months.

The Senate race tells a very different story. Talarico led Paxton by 6 points — 48 percent to 42 percent. That is Paxton's worst result in this poll so far. In July, Talarico led by 5 points, and in May, he led by 3 points. Paxton's numbers have been getting worse, not better.

Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, explained the big gap between Abbott and Paxton. He said Paxton is doing 13 points worse than Abbott in the same poll, and that is a serious warning sign. "His controversies, high unfavorable ratings, bruising primary and difficulty winning independents are preventing him from fully benefiting from Texas' Republican baseline," Rottinghaus said. In simple terms, Paxton is struggling to get support even from voters who usually back Republicans.

Paxton has faced several personal scandals in recent years. In 2023, the Texas House of Representatives voted to impeach him, which means they accused him of serious wrongdoing and removed him from office temporarily. The charges included bribery and abusing his power as the state's attorney general. Several of his former staff members said he accepted bribes and fired them when they spoke up about it. Paxton denied all of those claims and was later found not guilty by the Texas Senate.

The poll also found that only 80 percent of Republicans said they plan to vote for Paxton. That compares to 90 percent of Republicans who said they plan to vote for Abbott. In a state where Republicans make up such a large part of the electorate, losing support within your own party is a major problem. Paxton will need to win back those Republican voters if he wants to close the gap with Talarico.

Other recent polls show similar trends. A University of Texas survey released this week showed Talarico ahead of Paxton by 3 points, while Abbott led Hinojosa by 5 points. An Emerson College poll showed Paxton leading Talarico by just 1 point, while Abbott led Hinojosa by 4 points. Across all of these polls, Paxton consistently performs worse than Abbott.

Professor Rottinghaus said Texas is more competitive this year because cities and suburbs are growing, younger voters are more energized, and Latino voters may be shifting back toward Democrats. A recent poll showed Democrats leading in three heavily Latino districts that Trump won in 2024. "That doesn't necessarily mean Texas has suddenly become a blue state — it means Republicans have less room for error than they used to," he said.

With Election Day on November 3 now less than three months away, campaigns are speeding up their work. They are spending more money on ads, raising more funds, and working hard to get their supporters to show up and vote. The last day to register to vote is October 5, early voting runs from October 19 to 30, and all major races will be decided on November 3.