More Teams in Playoff Race Makes Trade Deadline Harder to Predict

Major League Baseball's expanded playoff system is making it very hard to know which star players will be traded before the August 3 deadline. Twenty-three of the 30 teams are within four games of a playoff spot as the second half of the season begins. That means almost every team still has a chance, which changes how teams think about buying or selling players.

Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal is the most talked-about player who could be traded. Skubal has won the Cy Young Award — given to the best pitcher in each league — twice in his career. He is 29 years old and can become a free agent after the World Series, meaning the Tigers could lose him for nothing if they don't trade him. He went 2-3 with a 3.62 ERA in six starts after returning from elbow surgery on May 6. His surgery used a tiny, flexible tool called a NanoNeedle scope 2.0, and he was back on the mound by June 13.

The Tigers had a rough start to the season. They were 22-38 at the beginning of June, which put them 16 games below .500. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, that matched the 1914 Boston Braves as the most games under .500 for a team that still came back to make the playoffs. Since then, Detroit has gone 22-14 and is only 3.5 games out of the last American League wild-card spot. The team's next 16 games before the deadline will help show whether they should be buyers or sellers.

Other players could also be on the move before the deadline. Minnesota's Joe Ryan and the Mets' Freddy Peralta might become available for trade. The New York Mets could also trade relief pitchers Brooks Raley and A.J. Minter to teams in the playoff race. The San Francisco Giants may try to trade second baseman Luis Arraez as well.

Only two teams have division leads of more than three games. The Los Angeles Dodgers lead by 11.5 games and Milwaukee leads by five games. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said the tight playoff race is good for fans. He said it keeps as many teams as possible involved all the way through September.

Just seven teams are more than four games out of a wild-card spot. Those teams are the Athletics, Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels, San Francisco Giants, New York Mets, and Colorado Rockies. Toronto pitcher Dylan Cease, who won the All-Star Game for the American League, said having more teams in the race is always a good thing for the sport.

The Philadelphia Phillies have had a big turnaround this season. They fell to 9-19 before manager Rob Thomson was fired on April 28 and replaced by Don Mattingly. Since then, the Phillies have gone 44-24 and are just two games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East. First baseman Bryce Harper said getting pitcher Zack Wheeler back into the rotation was a huge turning point for the team.

The Boston Red Sox are the hottest team heading into the second half. They fired manager Alex Cora after a slow 10-17 start and have gone 36-31 under new manager Chad Tracy. They even ended the first half with a perfect 9-0 road trip, the first time they had done that since 1977. If the Red Sox struggle, star closer Aroldis Chapman and starter Sonny Gray could be traded away.

One big reward teams are playing for is a first-round bye in the playoffs. Last year, three of the four teams with byes reached the League Championship Series. The bye lets teams rest and set up their starting pitchers for the Division Series. New York Yankees pitcher Cam Schlittler remembered how the Yankees lost a tiebreaker to Toronto last year and missed a bye, saying simply: 'Every game matters.'