El Niño Is Now the Strongest Ever Recorded — and Still Getting Worse

Japan's Meteorological Agency reported that ocean surface temperatures in the part of the Pacific Ocean it watches for El Niño were 4.0 degrees Celsius above normal in September. That is the highest reading since records began in 1949. The agency also said there is a 100 percent chance that El Niño will last through the winter months in the Northern Hemisphere.

The United Nations weather agency, called the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), agrees that the situation is serious. It said El Niño will keep growing stronger until it peaks around December. WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo said forecasts show a 'near-100 per cent likelihood' that it will last through February 2027 and could be 'one of the strongest since at least 1950.'

So what exactly is El Niño? It is part of a natural cycle in Earth's climate called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. During El Niño, a large area of the Pacific Ocean warms up more than usual. This warming changes weather patterns across the entire planet. It usually causes higher temperatures worldwide and disrupts normal rainfall — leading to droughts in some places and heavy rains in others.

Forecasters had been warning for months that this year's event could be the worst on record, calling it a 'super El Niño.' Those warnings are now coming true. The extra heat linked to El Niño is already pushing global temperatures to alarming levels. August 2026 tied with July 2023 as the hottest month ever recorded, with a worldwide average temperature of 16.96 degrees Celsius, according to the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service.

The health risks tied to this event are also very serious. Researchers at the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab estimated that heat connected to El Niño could cause up to 451,000 extra deaths around the world between June and February 2027. They also found that the number of extremely hot days could rise by 44 percent compared to normal years. These numbers are projections, meaning they are careful predictions based on scientific models of how heat affects people.