Trump's Approval Ratings Could Shape Who Wins Congress in 45 Days

The midterm elections are just 45 days away, and a big question is hanging over the race: Does it matter that many Americans disapprove of President Donald Trump? Midterm elections happen every two years, in the middle of a president's term. Voters choose who will control Congress — the House of Representatives and the Senate. When a president is unpopular, his party often struggles in these elections.

Republicans are hoping that voters will focus on issues like immigration, crime, and national security. Those are topics where Republicans often do well with voters. But Democrats think that anger over high prices and the ongoing Iran war will push voters to their side instead. Both parties agree that control of Congress is up for grabs, which makes the next 45 days very important.

Most recent polls show that Trump's approval rating — the share of people who say he is doing a good job — is low. A Marquette Law School survey found that only 37 percent of adults approved of Trump's performance, while 63 percent disapproved. A Fox News poll put his approval at 39 percent, and a Reuters/Ipsos poll found it even lower, at 35 percent. These numbers come from surveys taken all across the country, not just in one state or region.

Nathan Gonzales, an expert who studies elections, said Trump's low ratings make things harder for Republicans. 'Any midterm election with an unpopular president is potentially treacherous for his party,' Gonzales told Newsweek. He also said that Trump's poor approval rating has given Democrats a chance to win in states where they don't usually compete. That is a serious warning sign for Republicans heading into November.

One of the biggest worries for Republicans is what is happening with independent voters — people who don't strongly belong to either party. A recent national survey found that Trump's approval among independents dropped from 29 percent to 26 percent, while disapproval rose to 61 percent. Independent voters often decide close elections, so losing their support can be very costly. If Republicans can't win back these voters, they could lose seats they expected to keep.

Voters say their top concern right now is the cost of living — things like groceries and gasoline that cost more than they used to. The Marquette poll found that 37 percent of people named inflation and the cost of living as the country's biggest problem. Many Americans feel they are paying more for everyday items than they were earlier in the year. This is a tough situation for the Trump administration, which is trying to convince people that the economy is getting better.

The Iran war has also become a problem for Republicans. A Fox News poll found that most voters think the U.S. military action against Iran was the wrong decision. Nearly three out of four voters said the administration does not have a clear plan for ending the conflict. Even though most voters care more about prices than about foreign policy, these numbers show that many people are unhappy with how Trump has handled the war.

At a recent Republican event in Dallas, Trump told his supporters to act as if he were personally on the ballot in November. 'Pretend that I'm on the ballot. I'm on the ballot, just one more time,' Trump told the crowd. By saying this, Trump was tying himself closely to Republican candidates running across the country. That means if voters are unhappy with Trump, it could hurt those candidates too.

Republicans still have reasons to feel hopeful, though. Trump has a very loyal group of supporters who often show up to vote even when polls suggest otherwise. Republicans also remain strong on issues like immigration and border security, which matter a lot to many voters. Grant Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University, pointed out that disapproving of a president doesn't always mean someone will vote for the other party.

In the end, many things will decide who wins control of Congress — not just Trump's approval rating. The quality of individual candidates, how much money they raise, and local issues in each state will all play a role. Democrats are hoping the election becomes a judgment on Trump and the Republicans in power. With 45 days left, the big question is simple: Will voters reward the party in charge, or will they be ready for a change?