Democrats Hope for Big Wins, But Questions Remain

On Nov. 3, Americans will vote in midterm elections — elections held in the middle of a president's term. Democrats are expected to win more seats in Congress, governors' mansions, and state governments across the country. But just how many seats they will gain is still not clear. These elections could be one of the biggest shifts in political power in many years.

Democrats are hoping for what many people call a 'blue wave.' That means they want to win not just in close battleground states like North Carolina, but also in states that President Donald Trump won by a lot in 2024, such as Texas, Kansas, and Ohio. Republicans have been moving money and support to protect those traditionally safe states. At the same time, they have mostly given up trying to save some of their members in the suburbs, like Rep. Tom Kean Jr. of New Jersey.

One big reason Republicans are worried is that President Trump is not very popular right now. A Fox News poll from Oct. 14 found that only 36% of registered voters approve of the job Trump is doing, while 64% disapprove. That is the lowest approval rating Trump has received in Fox News polling during either of his two terms. According to Gallup, when a president's approval falls below 50%, their party tends to lose an average of 36 seats in the House.

Voters are also unhappy about rising prices. A war with Iran pushed fuel costs way up, and many people are angry because Trump promised to lower energy costs, cut inflation, make groceries cheaper, and stop wars. The University of Michigan tracks how Americans feel about the economy, and in October it recorded its second-lowest score ever. Democrats have been loudly pointing out these broken promises in speeches, ads, and debates.

Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia summed up the Democratic message at an Oct. 7 rally in Savannah. 'So many broken promises,' he said. 'More people are unemployed; the wars are still raging; the debt is exploding; (and) prices are going up.' Ossoff is the only Democratic senator running for reelection in a state Trump won in 2024, and polls show him with a comfortable lead.

Political science professor Tatishe Nteta of the University of Massachusetts Amherst said Trump has become the central issue for voters of many different backgrounds. He believes this election could be the worst defeat for a president's party since 2006, when President George W. Bush's party suffered major losses. 'If we're correctly capturing the sentiment of Americans, then what we're seeing is a repudiation of President Trump and his agenda, his policies and his vision for the future of the country,' Nteta said.

Trump has also been losing support among independent voters — people who do not belong to either major party. A survey found his approval among independents dropped by about 17% since he took office in January 2025. According to Gallup, 45% of voting-age Americans identified as independents in mid-2026, up from 38% at the end of 2020. Republicans are hurting themselves by pushing these voters away, according to John Opdycke, who leads a group called Open Primaries.

Even some Trump supporters who strongly backed his 'Make America Great Again' movement have grown less enthusiastic. A poll from September found a 9-point drop among Republican voters who identify with MAGA compared to just a few months earlier. Only 13% of U.S. adults said they 'strongly approve' of Trump's job performance in an October poll, down sharply from about 26% in May. Republicans have pulled ad money out of normally safe states like North Carolina while scrambling to defend Kansas.