Can Republicans Ever Win a Statewide Race in California Again?

Republican Steve Hilton ran for governor of California, but he lost — and lost badly. On election night, he walked into his party to the sound of an upbeat 1960s song. But the mood was anything but cheerful. Hilton only got about 35% of the vote, raising a big question: Can Republicans ever win a statewide race in California again?

The last time a Republican won a statewide office in California was in 2006, when Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger won reelection. That was nearly 20 years ago. Since then, Democrats have won every major statewide race in California. Hilton's poor showing made many Republicans wonder if the party has any future in the state.

To find answers, reporters spoke with Christian Grose, a political science professor at USC who studies voting and elections. Hilton earned about 3.23 million votes — fewer than any recent Republican candidate for governor. His share of the total vote, just 35.1%, was the lowest for a Republican running for California governor since 1914.

Hilton tried to focus on issues like the high cost of living, gas prices, and car fees. But polls run by Grose's team showed that the number one issue for voters was opposition to President Trump and the Republican Party, at 16%. Affordability and the economy each came in at just 10%, meaning voters cared more about national politics than local prices.

Grose said many Californians blamed economic problems on Trump and national Republicans, not on state leaders. This made it very hard for Hilton to separate himself from the national Republican brand. 'If people are blaming the economy on the national elected officials ... it's easier for the governor or statewide officials to say, Hey I didn't really do this,' Grose explained.

Polling also showed that Republicans are very unpopular in California. Only 26% of people had a positive view of Republicans, while 63% viewed them negatively. The MAGA movement was seen even more poorly, with just 21% viewing it positively and 67% viewing it negatively. Even Democrats had mixed results, but Republicans were seen in a far worse light.

Grose said the first step for Republicans is to improve how voters feel about the party in general. He added that Republicans need to win more seats in the state Legislature before they can seriously compete for governor. 'It would need to be a multiyear process,' Grose said. Simply trying to find one acceptable candidate every few years is not working.