Could Mahmood Be on Track to 'Stop the Boats' and Weaken Reform?

UK Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is in charge of the country's border and immigration rules. In the first half of 2026, far fewer people crossed the English Channel on small boats compared to the same time last year. Experts are trying to figure out why the numbers have dropped so sharply, and whether Mahmood's new policies deserve the credit.

According to Home Office data, about 12,469 people arrived in the UK on small boats by July 10, 2026. That is down 43 percent from the same period in 2025, when 21,690 people made the dangerous crossing. There were also nine straight days with no arrivals at all between July 11 and July 19. Overall, 190 boatloads of people arrived in the first half of 2026, compared to 372 in the same stretch of 2025.

Experts are puzzled by the drop and are looking at several possible reasons. One idea is that migrants are simply switching to different ways of entering the country. For example, some people may be arriving on legal visas and then staying past the expiry date, disappearing into low-paid, unofficial work without ever crossing the Channel. There is no official data on this, but it could explain part of the decline in boat crossings.

It is also possible that some boats are now choosing to land quietly on beaches instead of giving themselves up to Border Force or the Royal National Lifeboat Institution. If the UK's asylum rules get even stricter, this could become more common in the future. For now, the overall trend in the official numbers is clearly downward.

The UK government's new approach to processing asylum claims may also be having an effect. The previous government delayed reviewing asylum cases for years while it tried to set up a deportation deal with Rwanda. That left tens of thousands of people waiting with time to take on illegal work. Now, officials say new arrivals know their cases will be dealt with more quickly and they are likely to be sent back faster, which changes the decision for anyone thinking about paying a smuggler for a boat crossing.

Some changes are also happening across Europe. The number of people crossing the Mediterranean Sea from North Africa is down by about a quarter compared to 2025. The EU's border agency, Frontex, tracks these numbers. Countries like Italy have paid for training and equipment for coastguards in Libya and Tunisia so they can stop boats before they reach Europe. Charities have warned that these interceptions can be dangerous and sometimes violent.

For many years, stories about irregular migration have helped far-right political parties gain support. In the UK, parties like Reform UK and Restore have grown partly because of public anger over asylum seekers and migrants. Online misinformation about migrant crime and asylum hotels has also played a role. If the number of people crossing the Channel keeps falling, those parties may find it harder to use migration as a political issue.

For former Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, the improvements may have come too late to help his reputation. But for Mahmood, lower crossing numbers could be strong evidence that she knows how to get difficult things done. Her reforms to asylum and citizenship rules are still being consulted on, but the early signs suggest they may already be influencing how people think about making the risky journey to the UK.