Brazil's Big Election Could Shift the Balance of Power in Latin America

Brazilians are heading to the polls on Sunday in a very close presidential election. The two main candidates are Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, an 80-year-old leftist who is already president, and Flávio Bolsonaro, a 45-year-old far-right senator. Many people around the world are watching this race closely because the result could change the balance of power across all of Latin America. Some experts believe this election may be one of the most important in the region in years.

The race is so close that polls cannot predict a winner. If neither candidate gets more than half of all votes, the two will face each other again in a runoff election on October 25. Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro have each taken turns leading in the polls during the final weeks of the campaign. The unpredictable finish has made voters, experts, and world leaders pay close attention.

U.S. President Donald Trump has become a major force in Latin American politics. Since his second term began, Trump has backed right-wing candidates across the region, and he claims every candidate he has endorsed has won. He also helped create a group called the Shield of the Americas, a coalition of 15 countries that are mostly governed by right-wing or far-right leaders. This group focuses on fighting drug cartels, but Trump has also talked about the region's natural resources and the threat of China's growing influence.

Right now, only six Latin American countries have left-wing governments, and Brazil is by far the largest. Experts say Brazil may be the last big country in the region that could push back against Trump's wishes. 'Trump really does take seriously the idea that the Americas should be his back yard,' said Pedro Telles, a professor at Brazil's FGV university. A Bolsonaro victory, analysts warn, could leave almost no major country in the region willing to say no to Washington.

Flávio Bolsonaro is the son of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently under house arrest. The elder Bolsonaro was convicted of trying to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula by staging a coup. Because his father cannot run for office, Flávio stepped in as the far-right candidate. Some analysts say Flávio is benefiting from his father's loyal voter base as well as from voters who simply want Lula out of office.

Lula and Flávio have very different views on how Brazil should deal with the United States. Flávio has promised to join the Shield of the Americas and take a tough 'iron fist' approach to fighting crime. Lula has criticized Latin American leaders who he says show an 'inferiority complex' by going along with everything Trump wants. Lula has also refused a U.S. demand for access to Brazil's rare earth minerals in exchange for avoiding tariffs — something Flávio has said he would agree to.

Lula's campaign has faced some problems at home. Allegations of corruption involving his son and a former aide are still being investigated. Economic issues like household debt and online gambling have also hurt some Brazilians, even though unemployment and poverty have gone down during his presidency. Lula banned online betting just days before the election, a move that drew both praise and criticism.

Not all of Flávio's supporters are enthusiastic about him. 'I'm going to vote for Flávio, but not because I think he's the best option,' said Bruna Arguello, 34, a businesswoman from Santana de Parnaíba. Her first choice, a far-right former governor named Ronaldo Caiado, has almost no chance of winning. 'I'm going with Flávio so we can get Lula out,' she said.

Some Brazilians feel deeply emotional about the election. Actor Docy Moreira, 59, said that when Jair Bolsonaro won in 2018, she was so upset that she moved to a city more than 1,500 miles away to be around people who had voted differently. She eventually returned home, and most of her family now plans to vote for Flávio. Still, Moreira says she is confident Lula will win, and that even if he doesn't, she's stronger than before: 'I've learned that I can find refuge within myself.'

Experts say the stakes go beyond just who leads Brazil. A win for Flávio would likely give Trump a nearly unified, right-wing Latin America. 'Democracy is also kind of on the line here,' said Michael Shifter, a professor at Georgetown University, pointing out that Flávio is only running because his father is banned from doing so after being convicted of trying to stage a coup. The world is watching to see what Brazil decides.