Decades of Farm Progress Help the World Stand Up to a Powerful El Niño

A powerful weather event called El Niño is causing dry conditions across much of Asia and threatening crops around the world. Scientists say this could be one of the strongest El Niños ever recorded. But decades of progress in farming — including better seeds, smarter irrigation, and near-record food stockpiles — are helping protect the global food supply in ways that were not possible in the past.

El Niño is a natural warming of ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. It usually brings dry weather to much of Asia and extra rainfall to parts of North and South America. Strong El Niño events in 1997–98 and 2015–16 caused serious crop failures, rising food prices, and economic hardship in many countries. This year's event is expected to be just as strong, or even stronger, than those past episodes.

Countries in Asia are already feeling the effects. India is struggling with a weak monsoon season, which means less rain for farmers. Crops in Indonesia and Thailand are suffering from a lack of moisture. Australia's wheat-growing regions are also facing the threat of drier weather in the months ahead. A U.S. meteorologist named Chris Hyde warned that the worst of the dryness is still on the way, saying the big impact 'has yet to come.'

Despite these warnings, experts say the world is much better prepared than it was decades ago. One reason is that global supplies of grain and other foods are near record highs. India has so much rice stored that it has more than a full year's worth of global rice exports sitting in warehouses. China is holding nearly half of the world's wheat stockpiles, which could help reduce the need to import wheat if Australia's harvest is hurt by drought.

Farming technology has improved greatly since the last major El Niño. Scientists have developed new crop varieties that can survive drought and extreme heat. Drought-tolerant corn is now widely grown across Africa and the Americas. Heat-resistant wheat is helping farmers in India and Australia protect their harvests. In Southeast Asia, farmers plant faster-growing rice varieties that are better suited to unpredictable monsoon rains.

Farmers today also have access to digital tools that did not exist during past El Niño events. Satellites can monitor crop health from space. High-tech maps show farmers exactly where soil is too dry. GPS technology helps farmers apply fertilizer more efficiently. Many farmers are even using artificial intelligence, or AI, to get advice on when to plant, how much to water, and how to manage pests.

New countries have also become major food exporters, adding more supply to global markets. Brazil has grown into the world's largest soybean exporter, with exports rising more than 13 times since 1997–98. Russia's wheat exports jumped from about 1 million tons in 1997–98 to 48 million tons last year. These new suppliers give the world more options when one region is hit hard by bad weather.

Still, not everything is going smoothly. A war involving Iran has blocked part of the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway used to ship oil and natural gas. This has disrupted supplies of fuel and fertilizer around the world. Without enough fertilizer, farmers may struggle to grow as much food as they need. Experts say the situation could get harder in 2026 if these problems continue.

The UN's top food economist, Maximo Torero, said governments are much better at planning ahead than they used to be. 'Our forecasting and market transparency have improved,' he told Reuters. He also noted that the reduced use of farming supplies caused by the ongoing conflict is a real concern for the future. The world has made great progress in farming, but serious challenges remain.