Adam Hamilton vs. Roger Marshall: Kansas Senate Race Gets Surprisingly Close

Kansas has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in nearly 100 years, but a new poll shows the race is surprisingly close. Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Senator Roger Marshall 45 percent to 43 percent, according to a survey from Emerson College Polling and Nexstar Media. The poll was taken September 15–16 and is the first independent survey this year to put Hamilton ahead. Many people expected Marshall to win easily in one of America's most Republican states.

Hamilton is a first-time candidate who is best known as the founder of the largest United Methodist Church in the country. He started the Church of the Resurrection in Leawood, Kansas, in 1990 with just a few members meeting in a funeral home chapel. Today the church has about 25,000 members across nine locations near Kansas City. Hamilton has also written more than 30 books, mostly about Christian faith.

Hamilton describes himself as a centrist, meaning he does not lean strongly to the left or the right in politics. He says his congregation is nearly evenly split among Democrats, Republicans, and independents, which he sees as a model for his campaign. He raised $3.6 million in his first two months as a candidate, giving his campaign real momentum. Marshall's team has called Hamilton 'too woke for Kansas,' trying to paint him as too liberal for the state.

Not every poll shows Hamilton in the lead. A September 8–10 survey had Marshall ahead 49 percent to 44 percent, and two August polls showed results so close they were within the margin of error. Election experts have still moved the race from 'solid Republican' to 'likely Republican' since Hamilton entered. Most forecasters still give Marshall the edge, but the contest is no longer considered a sure thing.

Prediction markets, where people place real-money bets on election outcomes, still strongly favor Marshall. Kalshi gives Marshall a 74 percent chance of winning, while Hamilton sits at about 26 percent. Polymarket shows similar numbers, with Marshall at 71 percent and Hamilton at 28 percent. These markets take into account all available polls and other information to estimate who is more likely to win.

Independent voters are a key reason the race has gotten so competitive. The Emerson poll shows Hamilton leading among independents by 15 points, 42 percent to 27 percent. Independents are voters who do not belong to either major party and can swing an election in either direction. Hamilton's ability to appeal to this group is seen as his biggest advantage.

Kansas is still a deeply Republican state, and Marshall has some strong advantages going into November. President Trump won Kansas by more than 16 points in 2024, and the state's electorate leans heavily Republican. However, Democratic Governor Laura Kelly has won two terms, showing that Kansas voters can sometimes cross party lines. In 2022, Kansas voters also rejected a measure to remove abortion protections from the state constitution by a 59 percent margin.

A report from The New York Times found that during his medical career, Marshall sued more than 700 patients over unpaid medical bills. The amounts ranged from $101 to several thousand dollars, and about 81 patients were arrested after missing court dates. Most of those sued lived in Barton County, a rural area with higher rates of poverty and people without health insurance. Some patients were charged 18 percent annual interest on unpaid bills and had money taken from their bank accounts.

Marshall's campaign defended his record, saying the medical practice provided millions in free care and followed the same billing methods as other Kansas hospitals. Marshall is focusing his campaign on rural voters and warning that a Hamilton win could help Democrats take the Senate majority. Vice President JD Vance visited Olathe, Kansas, to show public support for Marshall. The November election will determine whether Kansas makes history or continues its nearly century-long streak of electing Republican senators.